A UN Women analysis warns that 11.7 million more women and girls could face food insecurity by the end of 2026. What does rising food inflation mean for women’s nutrition and household budgets in India?

When food becomes more expensive, the consequences are not always visible in the market where prices rise. They can emerge at the dinner table, when a household reduces its spending on nutritious food, a woman postpones eating until everyone else has finished or a mother tries to make a limited supply of groceries last until the next payday.

These everyday adjustments rarely appear in inflation figures. Yet they reveal how an economic shock can deepen existing inequalities within households.

A new analysis by UN Women has warned that escalating conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could leave an additional 11.7 million women and girls facing food insecurity across 28 countries by the end of 2026.

The analysis, published on October 2, estimates that women and girls could account for 53 per cent of the additional 22 million people at risk of food insecurity under the scenario examined. This would be on top of an estimated 208 million women and girls already experiencing food insecurity or undernourishment across those countries before the escalation.

The figures are scenario-based estimates, not predictions of what will inevitably happen. But they highlight a question that often receives less attention in discussions about inflation and conflict: when households can no longer afford the food they need, who is most likely to go without?

How a conflict far from the kitchen can affect what families eat

The Strait of Hormuz is a major international shipping route. Disruptions to maritime trade can affect the movement and cost of energy, fertilisers and other goods needed for agricultural production and food distribution.

When these costs rise, the effects can spread beyond the immediate conflict zone. Higher transport and production costs can put pressure on food prices, while disruptions to employment, livelihoods and remittances can reduce the money available to households.

The impact is particularly concerning for people who already spend a large share of their income on essential goods and have little money left to absorb unexpected expenses.

UN Women’s analysis identifies women and girls as especially vulnerable because inequalities in employment, income and access to financial services can leave them with fewer resources to withstand an economic shock.

A household with savings, reliable earnings and access to financial assistance may be able to manage higher food costs for a period. A household already struggling to meet basic expenses has fewer options.

For women with limited independent incomes, the consequences can be even more difficult. Their ability to purchase food may depend on household decisions, the income of other family members or whether they can access savings and social protection.

Food insecurity, therefore, is not simply a question of whether food is available in the market. It is also a question of whether people have the resources and decision-making power to obtain it.

The unequal plate: Why women may eat less when food becomes scarce

One of the most important findings highlighted by UN Women is the way gender inequality can influence food consumption within households.

“When food becomes scarce, women eat less and last,” said Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda, UN Women’s Deputy Executive Director, in remarks accompanying the analysis.

Women may reduce their portions, skip meals or turn to less nutritious diets to prioritise the needs of other household members.

Such decisions can be driven by care responsibilities, social expectations and financial dependence. In households where women are expected to ensure that children, older people and other family members are fed first, their own nutritional needs may receive less attention.

The adjustment can appear small: a smaller serving at dinner, fewer protein-rich foods during the week or replacing a varied meal with cheaper, less nutritious alternatives.

Repeated over time, however, these compromises can affect dietary quality and nutritional well-being.

The burden may be particularly difficult for pregnant women, breastfeeding mothers, adolescent girls and women already experiencing nutritional deficiencies. Their dietary needs cannot always be met by simply reducing portions or substituting one food for another.

Children’s nutrition is also closely connected to what families can afford. A mother who is trying to protect her children from hunger while managing a shrinking household budget may face difficult choices between the quantity of food available and its nutritional value.

Not every household responds to rising prices in the same way, and women do not invariably eat less than other family members. The broader concern is that gendered expectations and unequal access to resources can make women’s food consumption more vulnerable when household finances deteriorate.

India’s food inflation adds urgency to the question

India provides an important context for examining the relationship between food prices, household budgets and nutritional security.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India’s year-on-year food inflation, measured by the Consumer Food Price Index, reached 7.74 per cent in September 2026. The rate was 8.06 per cent in rural areas and 7.18 per cent in urban areas.

The figures, released on October 12, indicate that food prices were considerably higher on average than a year earlier, although inflation varied between individual food items and regions.

Inflation measures the rate at which prices change; it does not mean that every food item became more expensive by the same amount or that every household experienced the same financial pressure.

Nevertheless, persistent food-price increases can squeeze budgets, particularly for families whose incomes have not kept pace with essential expenses.

The effect depends on what households buy, how much they earn, where they live and what other costs they face. A family may respond by reducing discretionary spending, changing its food choices, drawing on savings or seeking assistance. For a household already close to its financial limit, the available adjustments may be much more restrictive.

India’s food-inflation figures do not establish that women are skipping meals because of the Middle East conflict. Nor does the UN Women analysis provide an estimate of additional food insecurity among Indian women specifically. Its projections cover the 28 countries included in the analysis.

The relevance for India lies in the wider question of how rising food costs interact with existing inequalities in access to income, nutrition and household resources.

Understanding that relationship requires more than looking at the overall inflation rate. It requires examining what families can afford to eat and how decisions about food are made within households.

When cheaper food does not mean adequate nutrition

One way families manage rising food costs is by changing the composition of their diets.

They may continue to purchase enough food to prepare meals but replace more expensive items with cheaper alternatives. Depending on the foods available and the household’s nutritional needs, these substitutions may reduce the variety or quality of the diet.

The distinction matters because food security involves more than having something to eat. It also involves reliable access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food.

For women, the consequences of a less varied diet can be compounded by existing nutritional disadvantages, demanding workloads and limited access to healthcare.

India’s National Family Health Survey has documented substantial nutritional challenges among women, including anaemia. However, anaemia has multiple causes, and it cannot be attributed to food-price increases alone. Establishing whether rising costs are worsening nutritional outcomes requires evidence linking affordability, dietary changes and health.

This is an important gap in how the issue is often discussed. Inflation data can show that food prices are rising, while nutrition surveys can identify health concerns. Neither necessarily tells us whether women are reducing their food intake, which foods they are giving up or how those decisions change when household incomes fall.

Better evidence on these questions would help policymakers identify households in which apparently manageable price increases are translating into serious nutritional risks.

The unpaid work behind a shrinking food budget

When money is tight, managing household food can require more time and effort.

A woman may visit several markets to compare prices, travel farther to find cheaper ingredients, prepare meals from scratch or make repeated adjustments to ensure that available supplies last longer.

She may also need to plan meals around school schedules, medical needs, dietary restrictions and the preferences of different family members.

These tasks can become more demanding when a household can no longer afford the foods it previously purchased. Preparing adequate meals with fewer ingredients, for example, can require additional planning and labour.

Such work is part of the wider burden of unpaid care and domestic responsibilities that women perform in many societies.

The UN Women analysis calls for better data to identify who is eating less, losing livelihoods, taking on additional unpaid care work or facing heightened nutritional and protection risks as food insecurity worsens.

This is significant because a household may appear to be managing financially while the time and effort required to maintain that stability increase substantially.

The economic cost is not limited to the amount spent at the grocery shop. It can also include time diverted from paid employment, education, rest or other activities.

However, these effects should be measured rather than assumed in individual cases. Research examining women’s time use, household spending and food consumption together would help establish how much additional unpaid work is associated with food-price pressure.

Why access to money matters as much as the availability of food

UN Women also highlights the importance of women’s access to financial services, including savings, banking and mobile money accounts.

When prices rise or income falls, access to money can help households manage the immediate disruption. Savings may cover essential purchases, while accessible cash assistance can help families meet food and other basic needs.

Women who lack independent access to financial resources may have fewer options when a household experiences a financial shock. They may need to rely on relatives, other household members or informal borrowing.

This does not mean that a bank account alone can protect a woman from food insecurity. The amount of money available, the stability of household income, local food prices and access to social protection all matter.

But financial access can influence whether women are able to respond to a crisis and make decisions about essential purchases.

The issue is especially relevant when food-price increases occur alongside employment losses or disruptions to remittances. In such circumstances, a household may face both higher expenses and less money to pay them.

What can governments do to protect women’s food security?

UN Women calls for an integrated response that combines food and cash assistance with nutrition services, protection, livelihood support and agricultural assistance.

The approach recognises that food insecurity cannot always be addressed through food distribution alone. Households may also need financial support, access to essential services and assistance in maintaining their livelihoods.

For India, the policy question is how existing food-security and social-protection systems can respond when essential costs rise.

The Public Distribution System provides subsidised foodgrains to eligible households. Its role in protecting access to staple foods is important, but foodgrains alone do not necessarily ensure a varied and nutritionally adequate diet.

Other interventions, including nutrition programmes for children and mothers, can address different needs. Their effectiveness depends on implementation, access and whether support reaches people facing the greatest difficulties.

Policymakers also need timely information about changes in food affordability and dietary consumption. National inflation figures are valuable for monitoring prices, but they cannot by themselves reveal which members of a household are eating less or losing access to nutritious food.

Disaggregated data on sex, age, income, location and household circumstances would help identify where the risks are greatest. Research should also examine how household food decisions change when prices rise, rather than treating the household as a single unit whose members necessarily experience the same conditions.

Where women are responsible for household food management, their experiences should inform the design of assistance programmes. Support should strengthen their access to resources and services rather than simply placing additional responsibility on them to make limited supplies stretch further.

Beyond inflation: Who bears the cost when households struggle?

The UN Women analysis offers a warning about the potential consequences of escalating conflict and disrupted trade for food security across the countries it examined. Its projections are conditional, but the inequalities it identifies deserve attention well beyond the immediate crisis.

For India, the challenge is to understand how food-price pressure interacts with household incomes, nutritional needs and unequal access to resources.

The answer cannot be found in a single inflation figure. It requires examining what people can afford, what they eat, whose needs are prioritised and how much unpaid work is required to keep a household functioning when money is scarce.

When families face financial pressure, women may make adjustments that are difficult to see in economic statistics. Those adjustments should not be mistaken for evidence that households are coping without harm.

Food security is not simply about keeping food on the table. It is also about ensuring that every person at that table can obtain enough nutritious food without sacrificing their health, dignity or economic independence.

As governments respond to economic shocks and protect access to essential goods, women’s nutrition and access to resources must be treated as central measures of food security, not as secondary concerns.

The real cost of rising food prices is measured not only in money spent, but also in the nutritional compromises, lost opportunities and additional labour that households may be forced to absorb.